Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
